The view from a Russian military professional via The Saker
The Saker has over the years proved to be a high level intelligence analyst with an unconventional point of view, as his background is seemingly rooted in the lands that once comprised the former Soviet Union though he apparently resides in Israel. His point of view will not be comfortable for many of the Irascible Correspondent’s readers.
Note by the Saker: one of our readers today sent me a very interesting document in Russian. First, I thought “more of the same” (5th columnist stuff) but then I started reading it and I changed my mind. This was clearly written by a military professional, his name is Alexander Dubrovsky. It was posted here and here. So I literally *begged* our new Russian translators to make even a “quick and dirty translation” because I wanted to get the info to you as fast as possible (in the meantime, I was writing this). And one of them did! (Thank you N.!!!).
While Dubrovsky’s views are not “Holy Writ” his testimony and analysis is, I think, priceless, especially for those who live in Zone A. We don’t have to agree with every letter, but I urge you to read it very carefully and in full. I consider this text so important that I will post it under “guest analyses” and not “Saker Community translations” because I want to give it max visibility. All our articles under “guest analyses” are written for the Saker blog or by permission, never taken off the Internet without the author’s permission. But, as the ancient Russian saying goes, “rules are for the cause and not the cause for the rules” 🙂
We underestimated the enemy’s power of informational, ideological, psychological resistance, they were waiting for us. Literally on the very first day, with one click of American bloody fingers, they deprived us of the support of the civilian population and those AFU units ready to become neutral. Millions of dollars, thousands of IT guys, global media corporations cut Ukraine off from any objective information, it stank in our country.
And our main losses were in the first three days. Now they will be rapidly reduced. Peacekeeping and humanitarian operations, like the Crimean one— are no longer carried out by the Russian army. The fighters received other orders, got involved, got angry, regrouped, any hopes for active support from the civilian population and those parts of the AFU who had changed their mind were dispelled.
There were few flowers and bread loaves to be seen, the people have been crushed by propaganda and lies, intimidated into insanity by the Nazis. Another important point was missed in the calculations — almost 600 thousand Ukrainians have passed through the ATO zone in the Donbas since 2014, today they have replenished the territorial defense everywhere, many have something to fear. Especially in the wake of fakes about executions without trial by the ATO.
Can you imagine what, during a year of service there, the Nazis stuffed into their heads – gave them the opportunity to shoot at the settlements of “quilted jackets and colorados” with impunity, to mock the civilian population there. So, the calculation for the help of locals and APU was inaccurate, the cancer in Ukrainian society is simply monstrous. But… we will cure it.
If we explain our tactics of the first days… this is a creatively reworked “reconnaissance by combat” of the Great Patriotic War. Only with a deep and rapid penetration into the Nazi-occupied territory. We provoked the activity of the enemy with tactical groups, deliberately drawing out parts of the APU and the National Guard from their locations. With a small number withstanding the terrible counterattacks of tanks and armored vehicles, of a superior in number motorized infantry.
Sometimes it was impossible to suppress the “Grads”, artillery and mortars hidden in residential neighborhoods that were nailing you. Urban areas could not be cleaned methodically in combat formations, causing supporting fire, attack helicopters, sappers, flamethrowers, tanks to carry machine-gun emplacements in houses and social infrastructure facilities.
This is a war unfamiliar to us veterans. Especially when the sky is under your full control, airfields are packed with attack aircraft and bombers, operational and tactical missile systems are in service, there is a lot of heavy artillery. Now it has become clear even to civilians: the correct name for what is happening truly is “a special military operation for denazification.” And the demilitarization of Nezalezhnaya was completed by the end of the third day.
The APU, as a single, manageable and effective structure, has ceased to exist. Today, there are dozens of groups of different numbers isolated from each other, hiding in cities and towns. No centralized supply, no air support, no approach of reinforcements. They are not able to act within the framework of any plans of the Ukrainian General Staff. Just crowds of armed men with orders to stand to the death.
The main groups “North” and “East” were beheaded and deprived of command — these are 22 brigades, which had been entrusted with the honorable duty to drown Donbass in blood at the beginning of March. We beat them to it by a week or two, starting our own special operation. Now 150 thousand people (together with national soldiers) are marinated in “cauldrons” [A cauldron is when a large enemy formation is encircled and cut off from resupply or reinforcement -IC], cut off from each other. For a second — this was done by smaller Russian forces… and in five days.
There is no organized resistance in other operational areas. Separate parts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), national battalions, sabotage groups. Everyone acts at their discretion, with varying degrees of activity. There is no way to move in columns, regroup, replenish ammunition, fuel, equipment even in local warehouses, everything is systematically destroyed by high-precision weapons and aircraft.
In a week or two, 80% of the AFU will turn into detachments completely devoid of ammunition, fuel, medicines, and food. Mentally and physically exhausted, without a unified command, goals and objectives. For the army, this is a terrible thing – despondency and decay. Especially for the Ukrainian, which is held by fear, propped up by Bandera detachments. Servicemen fear for the fate of their families in the rear.
The second stage of the operation…
Recognizably, the Syrian scenario. A neutral or terrorist-fearing population, among which it is almost impossible to identify militants. The Russian Army does not take such settlements – it surrounds cities with Bandera national battalions. Soon we will observe buses and “export tours” in the direction of the Western region. As soon as they are “ripe” without any support and help from outside.
In other places, cities are taken into semi-encirclement, thereby inviting the defenders to leave the territory on their own. No organized military columns, heavy equipment – all these goods are being destroyed. Individually, expensive. Yes, there is a danger of the appearance of a large number of sabotage groups, however, strategically three main tasks of the special operation are being solved: minimizing losses among the civilian population and infrastructure, our units and the army of Ukraine.
For the Russian and Ukrainian military to be cutting each other up with rapture is much too a luxurious gift for Washington and the Euro-Reich. The Bandera’s “partisan detachments” will get on your nerves, but the idea of the command is not bad. They will become legitimate prey for counter-terror detachments, military police and Ramzan Kadyrov’s men from the National Guard. Who do not take terrorist prisoners, they wipe them out… wherever they may find them. Denazification in the literal sense of the word.
An even sadder fate awaits the numerous mercenaries of the EuroReich, from which they form not military units (no time), but sabotage and tactical groups. Our General Staff has already stated that it does not consider them combatants with all the ensuing consequences, no conventions on prisoners of war apply here. I am sure that a special, cruel and purposeful hunt will be conducted for these “soldiers of fortune”. Poor devils…
The third stage of the operation.
I will not tell you in detail how and where the fighting unfolds, there is enough information from professional experts in the public domain. But everything is happening strictly according to plans, we have not even started transferring reserves, and they are standing in columns in the border areas. Losses are not just tolerable (from a military statistical point of view) — insignificant. Not a single unit has been allocated for re-formation or rest, which means it is fully combat-ready.
Look at the map, estimate the distances, marches, constant clashes, regrouping, maneuvering for tens of kilometers, and remember – our guys are opposed by the third largest army in Europe and extremely motivated Nazi formations. We need to tighten up the rear, rest elementary, maintain equipment, perform a bunch of previously unforeseen actions.
There is no need to pressure anyone, to demand more decisive actions – Flags of Victory over Mariupol, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkov, Odessa, and even more so, useless Kiev with its three million panicked, propaganda-pumped citizens. The objectives of the operation are strategy and tactics – in this completely new page in the art of war, haste is unacceptable.
My classmate at the Academy asked yesterday in a personal post:
Why is military aid to Ukraine not destroyed right at the arrival airport?
Why is it even possible for NATO transporters to visit the airspace of Ukraine?
Do you have a feeling that our diplomats are beginning to drain the efforts of the army? … All sorts of bad thoughts are wandering around in my head.
According to point number three. There will be no drain, all the goals of the special operation will be fulfilled. This is categorically repeated every day by the hardened [experienced Foreign Minister Sergey] Lavrov, and Putin announced yesterday. The French “peacemaker” Macron is all washed up with his mediation. And [Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir] Medinsky in Belovezhskaya Pushcha [site of Russian Ukrainian negotiations] is subtly mocking the metrosexuals from the Ukrainian delegation. There’s no one there to talk to.
Look at the brave Commander-in-Chief Ze, how he looks. Complete disintegration of the personality under the influence of drugs. The Americans will not allow him to negotiate and his own Nazis will kill him. The task is different – to completely destroy the country, drown it in chaos, so there will be nothing left over for anyone.
The special operation does not stop, there will be no more delays. Every day of delay categorically harms us, unplanned diplomatic, political, economic and military problems appear. Only speed and onslaught, until in the West they begin to assess the situation with a cool head.
About flying transporters with NATO symbols delivering weapons. This is impossible, the sky over the Nezalezhnaya and the south of Russia is closed for flights. They will make ground deliveries from Poland. And we will not destroy such convoys with “humanitarian aid”. Why, you ask? Better ask another question — who exactly is in power in Ukraine?
Outright Nazis. They took millions of civilians hostage in cities without humanitarian corridors, drove terrified people into basements and subway stations. Poisoning people with lies about “Russian atrocities”, mass shootings, executions, violence, carpet bombing. They place civilians with machine guns near strategic command and control facilities. As in Kiev at the SBU building, closely adjacent to the St Sofia Cathedral.
Zelensky’s curators and Bandera battalions are staging a humanitarian catastrophe, leaving the towns and villages of Donbass and blowing up everything: bridges, substations, pumping stations. Remember the liberation of Ukraine and 1945, the agony of the Third Reich. The quote of the demoniac, issued in the orders on the destruction of the entire infrastructure of Germany: “if the war is lost, it absolutely does not matter that the people will die.”
It is useful to know history in order to predict the behavior of the Nazis. Such is the ideology, social norms of life, worldview.
So, military columns will not be destroyed for three reasons. Firstly, these are trophies. Secondly, weapons will not get to the combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the national battalions of the South-East — the addressees are sitting in “cauldrons”. Thirdly, everything will be transported by ordinary civilian trucks, the rear transport of the AFU units is together with its parts, or destroyed in fleets.
Calculate and hit container trucks? Yes, you can. Just keep in mind — all the roads to the border checkpoints with “kind-hearted Europe” are clogged with columns of cars of fleeing Ukrainians for hundreds of kilometers. The traffic there is terrible. There are women and children in the cars. And Poland and Hungary did not move the inspection points into the depths of their territories, did not increase the checkpoint capacity with additional personnel.
That is, Ukrainian border guards with their “colleagues” keep people waiting for days to cross the border. Continue to describe the scenario that Kiev and Washington are counting on? Or can you figure out for yourself what kind of TV picture the whole “civilized world” expects? They dream that bloodthirsty Russians will start bombing civilian cars… or the railway.
But it is hard to believe in such scenarios, it is clear to everyone – Ukraine is completely lost, no amount of weapons will help it anymore. But some parts will definitely be delivered to Lvov, mercenaries and ideological Banderites will receive them. And then in groups proceed to commit sabotage, intimidate local administrations across the country, try to disrupt our communications and supply lines.
But this is another special operation, a police one. One that Ukrainians themselves are able to carry out with minimal Russian help, as they get over their shock. This is their land, they live here. Announce a reward of five thousand dollars for an anonymous denunciation — in a day all saboteurs and partisans will end. This is the kind of country it is.
But we’ll make it sooner…
I want to reassure you, for the twelfth day our guys are operating in a different operational and tactical reality, losses will rapidly decrease. If earlier there was a strict order not to cause even hypothetical harm to civilians, civilian objects… today it has been modified. In one sentence: “not to the detriment of the personnel of the units.” As a military man, I am completely satisfied: now the humanitarian sensitivities are over – real work will go on.
Fired at a column – in response will follow the entire military-technical menu. Such orders only work that way. Will the civilian population suffer? Yes, some losses are inevitable, but not through our fault. We do not storm cities according to Regulations, but bypass or surgically act with special forces, as in Kharkov. With the use of previously completely unknown tactics of urban combat by night maneuver groups. Let’s talk about this separately.
Let the Ukrainians pickle themselves in the cities, digesting the Banderites who have settled in and the “territorial battalions” fooled by Nazi propaganda. Who can no longer cope with looters there, never mind the “reflection of aggression”. This is not our problem now, no matter how cruel the words may sound.
The final turning point will come after the cleansing of Kharkov, blocking or taking Odessa. All the heroic self-defense forces of other settlements will dissolve by themselves, obvious signs of a humanitarian catastrophe are already visible in the surrounded cities. The fog, when it is completely fake, subsides most quickly in the dark, invigorating coolness and on an empty stomach.
The population is not morally ready to stand to the last. Ukrainian social networks are already full of messages from places where local administrations remained after the arrival of the Russian Army, food is being delivered smoothly, street lighting is on, local police control the streets. With each new day, the fake hysteria will subside, the thought will come to the drugged heads: what next?
Will the encircled Banderites [followers of Stepan Bandera] begin to commit atrocities in their impotent anger? Well, Ukrainians should also carry this cross on their own. Of course, we will try to do everything to rescue children and the elderly. But Putin will not allow to bear sensitive losses, this is not that war.
It was not us who raised the fiend of hell, nurtured it, allowed it to seize power and hostages in the person of an entire nation. It was not us, who armed them and sent them to kill Donbass, taught them to hate Russians. Criminal indifference and complicity is also a punishable act. Not by us, by life itself.”
I agree that in some places it is very cynical, but this is only from the point of view of a civilian. Any military action –that is a different reality…