Disturbing anomalies in last week’s jobs report
Karl Denninger publishes regular commentary in government statistics, this is his latest.
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 372,000 in June, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care.
The unadjusted number was +69,000 a 90% decline from the prior month.
In addition, and perhaps much worse, 700,000 people left the “not in labor force” number and came back into the workforce, so net-net most of them — 90% — didn’t find jobs.
Even worse, in terms of economic pressure, health care added 57,000 jobs, which will further accelerate the ramp in cost and collapse of the system — and I’ll bet that, as has been true for a long time, nine out of ten are administrative and never provide a single second of personal care to a single person.
The “barbell” that we’ve had for a couple of decades is starting to flash red too — among educational attainment the employment-population ratio for those with Bachelor’s Degrees and better was down a massive 0.9% in one month and worse, it appears plenty of those people are dying too because 622,000 of them disappeared from the labor force last month and you can never go down in educational attainment, thus this is not migration from one category to another. While this count can be wrong of course if its not then that’s 622,000 of people with Bachelor’s degrees or better who may well be dead in one month, and even with the removal of that pressure from job competition that category still lost ground as there are 903,000 fewer Bachelor’s holding people employed this month .vs. last. You cannot explain this as people with Bachelor’s and better choosing to leave the labor force voluntarily, which some will attempt to deflect this with, because on a month-over-month basis 700,000 people all-in came back into the labor force and you can’t find the offset sufficient to explain this decline in the other educational groups.
This is a leading edge of recession print but in addition there are very ill winds blowing in the population in terms of mortality embedded in this report and I’ll bet I’m the only one who catches and notes it.